President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened Greece twice in a week that Turkey might “one night suddenly unleash its anger” on a neighboring state. According to the leader, he and the entire Turkish people are running out of patience because of the situation in the Aegean, where Athens has equipped the islands with heavy weapons, which, according to international agreements, were supposed to remain demilitarized.
How the crisis between Greece and Turkey is developing, is the reason for Erdogan’s aggressive rhetoric really provoked by the situation in the maritime region and is there something else behind his threats ?
Intercepting fighters and arming the islands
Turkey has repeatedly voiced its claims against Greece in recent days. For the first time, Ankara accused Athens of militarizing the islands, which, according to the Turkish side, are illegally armed by the Greeks. In the second case – in a dangerous provocation from the neighbors.
According to the Turkish Ministry of National Defense, Greek air defense systems have been deployed to “harass” and “hijack” the Turkish Air Force’s F-16 fighters as they fly over the international waters of the Aegean Sea. On Tuesday, September 6, during his visit to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Recep Tayyip Erdogan began his speech with a comment on this matter.
“Fixing our planes with radar is a bad sign. Our patience is running out!” he said.
According to the Turkish president, the Greeks maintain military bases on the islands, and if they continue to arm them, Ankara will take action.
“If threats against us continue, we will stop tolerating and one night we will suddenly fall on you,” Erdogan promised.
At the end of August, the Turkish leader already made similar statements, and secondary threats puzzled many experts. Especially earlier, the Turkish leader used the expression “one night we will suddenly fall on you” on the eve of military operations in northern Syria. Therefore, in Greece, these words were also taken quite seriously.
What Ankara sees as a threat from Athens
Since mid-summer, Turkey has suddenly begun to challenge the sovereignty of the Greek islands in the Aegean. According to Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu , Athens is arming islands that are not subject to militarization in accordance with international agreements, and therefore Ankara has the right to open the issue of domination over them for discussion.
It was about the Lausanne Peace Treaty, signed in 1923, and the Paris Treaty of 1947, in which, according to the Turkish side, the status of the islands is determined and their armament is prohibited. In addition, they define the distance from the Turkish borders at which it is allowed to deploy military facilities.
Greece does not agree with this and disputes Ankara’s position, explaining the creation of bases on islands in the Aegean Sea with the right to defend itself in the face of the Turkish threat. The fact is that the neighboring state maintains a significant flotilla of warships on the coasts bordering the Greek islands.
Shortly before Turkey raised the issue of the militarization of the Greek-owned islands, Erdogan complained about the United States, which in recent years has been moving away from Ankara, but strengthening relations with Athens. Including placing their military bases on Greek territory. According to the Turkish leader, by arming Greece, the United States and the European Union pose a threat to the Turks.
“Nine American bases are deployed in Greece. Europe, despite the country’s debts, is arming it, donating warplanes. The Americans do the same. We have a question: against whom is all this? They claim that they are against the Russian Federation. I’m sorry, but we don’t believe it!” – he said.
According to political scientist Furkan Kaya , the United States is trying to surround Turkey with bases on the islands of Greece and thereby provoke Ankara. At the same time, the expert called the Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis the new Vladimir Zelensky (President of Ukraine – Ed.), who, at the direction of Washington, organizes provocations.
“The establishment of military bases and militarization is contrary to the Lausanne Treaty. According to this agreement, there should not be any military units within a radius of 30 km from Turkey. However, the United States has long been planning to establish a base in Alexandroupolis, which is located 20 km from Turkish territory. Greece must decide whether it is a sovereign state or a proxy power of the United States. There is serious opposition in Athens, accusing the authorities of turning Greece into a solid US base. More than 18 of the 23 islands have US military installations. It is alleged that there are about 16 thousand soldiers there. The islands are arming themselves to draw Turkey into a war with Greece in order to stir up and inflame the entire region,” Kaya said.
The fact that Erdogan also sees not Greece, but the United States as the true “provocateur of the conflict”, is also evidenced by some of his latest statements. In a speech on August 30, timed to coincide with Victory Day in the Battle of Dumlupinar (the decisive battle of the second Greco-Turkish war – Ed.), he noted that Greece is no match for Turkey, either politically or economically or militarily.
“Like a century ago, we know the real intentions of those who are trying to distract us by wasting our country’s energy and time using Greece,” Erdogan said.
According to Turkish history textbooks, at the beginning of the last century, the Greeks were provoked by the West in order to destroy the Ottoman Empire and divide its parts among the mighty powers of Europe.
Elections and ratings of leaders
In addition to those experts who see a real threat to Turkey in the actions of Greece, there are those who are skeptical about the sincerity of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s militant rhetoric. According to such experts, on the eve of the 2023 elections, the Turkish leader is only trying to play a win-win card of whipping up a negative atmosphere for the sake of consolidating the country’s population around his figure.
A clash or crisis in relations with a historical rival will somehow distract citizens from the economic problems that the Turks have had to live with in recent years. Some analysts believe that for this Erdogan can take military action, others are sure that the politician is only inflating the problem and taking advantage of the moment.
According to another version of the version, the Turkish president may use the escalation with Greece in order to completely cancel the upcoming elections in an emergency. Then he will be able to maintain his power and expand his powers.
On the other hand, it is worth considering that the Greek prime minister is in a similar difficult situation. Kyriakos Mitsotakis faced social problems in the context of a protracted economic crisis.
In addition, due to illegal wiretapping by the Greek National Intelligence Service (EYP) of the phone of the head of the opposition Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) Nikos Androulakis, the prime minister of a European state may lose his post.
PASOK is now the main political rival of Mitsotakis’ New Democracy party. The Greek opposition calls the scandal a personal “Watergate” of Mitsotakis and demands a thorough investigation. In other words, the head of government also needs a red herring, just like the Turkish president.
Natural resources of the Eastern Mediterranean
Let us note that relations between Athens and Ankara escalated sharply after August 23.
It was then, according to the Turkish side, that the Greek air defense systems “captured as a target” Turkish F-16 fighters performing NATO tasks in the airspace over the Aegean Sea.
However, just a day before this incident, it became known that the French company TotalEnergies and the Italian Eni had found a large gas field in the Cronos-1 well off the coast of Cyprus.
“Preliminary estimates indicate the presence of about 2.5 trillion cubic meters of natural gas with significant additional growth potential to be explored with a further exploration well in the area,” Eni said in a statement.
This is the third such find in the waters off the coast of Cyprus. For the first time, Nicosia announced the discovery of deposits of natural gas with a volume of about 4.5 kcm in 2011. The field is currently operated by the American energy company Chevron.
However, Turkey is strongly opposed to the exploration and production of natural gas from new fields, contesting the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Greece and Cyprus. Ankara and the Turkish Cypriots are said to have a right to minerals in these sectors of the Mediterranean.
Over the past few years, Turkey has repeatedly sent its drilling and research ships to the Eastern Mediterranean – in the waters that Greece and Cyprus call their EEZs. Ankara was forced to withdraw its vessels as a result of external pressure and Western interference in the situation.
Some experts attribute the current escalation to Turkey’s desire to draw attention to this problem. That is why Recep Tayyip Erdogan is taking risks by raising the stakes before possible negotiations on this topic.
Source : riafan.ru